There will be more than 1.4 billion fixed broadband subscribers worldwide by the end of 2030, according to a new forecast from Point Topic. Point Topic’s broadband subscriber forecast is 17% higher than the research firm’s previous one. Point Topic attributes the increase to higher than expected growth in broadband take-up and addressable audiences in several countries.
The current forecast is based on the research firm’s quarterly broadband take-up data up to the fourth quarter of 2019, and includes both residential and business connections.
Emerging and “youthful” markets will supply most of the growth, thanks to fast growing populations and economies, Point Topic said. The “youthful” country category will grow 34% between 2019 and 2030.
The slowest growth will be seen in developed regions of Western Europe and North America, where broadband markets are reaching saturation and are only predicted to grow by 13% over the same period.
Much of the overall growth is due to broadband expansion in large emerging and youthful markets, many of which are located in the Middle East, Africa, and South and East Asia. They include countries like Indonesia, South Africa, Thailand, Argentina and Vietnam.
While Indonesia is forecast to see 198% broadband subscriber growth between 2019 and 2030, China’s growth will be only 18% over that period because the country is quickly approaching fixed broadband market saturation.
The above forecast could be changed as Point Topic evaluates the rollout of 5G and the resulting fixed/mobile substitution rates, the research firm said.
